We analyze how interest rates affect cross-border portfolio investments. Data on U.S. bond holdings by foreign …

contributory factor to this conundrum was the contemporaneous increase in US bond demand. Using ARDL-based models, which … accommodate structural breaks, this paper estimates the impact of demand on US bond yields in the conundrum period. This impact is … shown to have been everywhere significantly negative. The fact that our model fully explains the bond yield conundrum gives …

factors have contributed to the recent decline in bond yields in the US. For that purpose, we start with a very general model … to establish a stable long-run relationship and find that the behaviour of bond rates in the last few years may well be … overestimation of bond yields is not unusual historically. Finally, our bond yield equation outperforms a random walk model in …