Using a unique data set based on US commercial banks and county level loan origination for the period 2005-2010, we measure whether banks that benefited from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) increase small business loan originations. We propose an identification strategy which exploits...

The market for credit default swaps (CDS) on US government debt is remarkably thin. Relative to the amount of reference debt, the market for CDS on USA is an order of magnitude smaller than the markets for CDS on other high-grade government borrowers, such as Germany and the UK. A common theory...

As the debt ceiling episode unfolds, we highlight a sharp increase in activity across the U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) market and infer the likelihood of a U.S. default from these market prices. Beginning in January 2023, we document a significant increase in U.S. CDS trading activity and...