We estimate the effect of electorally induced policy uncertainty on investment in the manufacturing sector. Because …, and because the policies relevant to business investment vary systematically by party, uncertainty over the partisan … affiliation of the future governor is a source of political risk to firms considering business investment. More importantly, the …

holds for the microeconomic response of some of the most important economic variables, such as investment, labor demand, and … actual response to shocks is less than half as fast as the estimated response. For investment, labor demand and prices, the …, even after aggregating investment across all establishments in U.S. manufacturing, the estimate of its speed of adjustment …