This paper evaluates the predictive out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty …. The core contention is that economic uncertainty improves both forecast accuracy as well as direction-of-change forecasts … an increased relevance of certain economic uncertainty measures for forecasting growth in both real aggregate as well as …

The argument that policy risk, i.e., uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about … technology. We directly measure uncertainty from aggregate time series and find considerable evidence of time-varying policy risk …

We study the development of bank lending in the U.S. after four large jumps in uncertainty using an event study … uncertainty. Lending by smaller banks is also less responsive to increases in uncertainty. Banks with a higher capitalization …-bank holding company. This heterogeneity across banks suggests that declines in bank lending following increases in uncertainty are …