In this paper we estimate simple Taylor rules paying particular attention to interest rate smoothing. Following English, Nelson, and Sack (2002), we employ a model in first differences to gain some insights into the presence and signifcance of the degree of partial adjustment as opposed to a...

In this article, we are investigating the effects of the macroeconomic variables. We have applied a Quantile regression, (including LAD), in EViews 6 to test the quantile of the natural logarithmic returns of the seasonally adjusted money supply, (M2) on the natural logarithmic returns of the...

This paper assesses the proximate causes of the post pandemic surge in US inflation, the Federal Reserve's real time reaction to and interpretation of incoming data in 2021, and the pivot to raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet that commenced in 2022 and continues in 2023. Particular...

Lucas (1972) is the pathbreaking analysis of the neutrality and temporary non-neutrality of money. But our central banks set interest rate targets, and do not even pretend to control money supplies. How is inflation determined under an interest rate target?

Be it ‘excess reserves' that deposit money part of all entities at the central bank not used to satisfy statutory reserve requirements, plus all disposable cash held by the same institutions and not used to satisfy statutory reserve requirements either. Would this be rather common place,...

In only a few years, central bank digital currencies (CBDC) have gone from a fringe idea promoted by cryptocurrency bloggers to an idea now seriously explored by 80% of the world’s major central banks, including the People’s Bank of China and the United States Federal Reserve. This paper...

Contrary to popular belief, the history of central banking begins much earlier than 1800. Many current issues of central bank policy can be traced back to the public giro banks of the 15th century, and have been discussed in numerous essays at least since the 17th century. Are the same debates...

This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility. Exploiting unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth, and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New Keynesian model for the United States and other G7 countries...

This paper examines partisanship in public perceptions of the Federal Reserve. In all years from 2001 through 2023, trust in the Federal Reserve was highest for respondents of the same party as the President. The partisan effects were larger than other demographic differences in trust, but do...

Using 472 FOMC meetings (1969-2019) and the exogenous rotation of voting rights among Reserve Bank presidents, we identify meetings where local economic conditions in voting districts significantly affect the Federal funds target rate (FFR), while those in non-voting districts show no effect....