In the present paper we analyse whether fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the recent decline in bond yields in the US. For that purpose, we start with a very general model of interest rate determination in which risk premia are...

The issuing policy of the U.S. Treasury allows us to unambiguously isolate maturity-dependent liquidity premia in the Treasury market. We determine and analyze three term structures of liquidity premia obtained from observed yields of coupon STRIPS, observed yields of principal STRIPS, and...

This paper estimates the impact of the Federal Reserve's 2008-2011 quantitative easing (QE) program on the U.S. term structure of interest rates. Different from other studies, we estimate an arbitrage-free term structure model that explicitly includes the quantity impact of the Fed's trades on...

We introduce a robust, flexible and easy-to-implement method for estimating the yield curve from Treasury securities. This method is non-parametric and optimally learns basis functions in reproducing Hilbert spaces with an economically motivated smoothness reward. We provide a closed-form...

Although the federal funds rate started rising from mid-2004 US long term rates continued to fall. A likely contributory factor to this conundrum was the contemporaneous increase in US bond demand. Using ARDL-based models, which accommodate structural breaks, this paper estimates the impact of...

Bond prices from 1897 to 1926 have not been compiled. Financial historians have made do with yield series offered by Macaulay (1938) or with yield summaries found in Durand (1942), Hickman (1958), or Homer (1963). Where holding period returns have been of interest (Siegel 2014), these have been...

This paper analyzes the dynamics of long-term US Treasury security yields from a Keynesian perspective using daily data. Keynes held that the short-term interest rate is the main driver of the long-term interest rate. In this paper, the daily changes in long-term Treasury security yields are...