and statistically significant real-time improvements in forecast accuracy. The preferred MIDAS model reduces the MSPE by … as much as 16 percent compared with the no-change forecast and has statistically significant directional accuracy as high …

expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function …

only USA but the rest of the world. The wrong government policies and the regulations in bond market among others lead to … order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. The first one is the Logit model, the second is the … in-sample period 1913-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The estimation results indicate …

In this study two approaches are applied for the prediction of the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. The … of the two approaches is evaluated during the out-of sample period 2007-2010. The estimation results show that the ANFIS …