We seek to determine whether a United States President's job approval rating is influenced by the Misery Index. This hypothesis is examined in two ways. First, we employ a nonlinear model that includes several macroeconomic variables: the current account deficit, exchange rate, unemployment,...

We compare the performance of maximum likelihood (ML) and simulated method of moments (SMM) estimation for dynamic discrete choice models. We construct and estimate a simplified dynamic structural model of education that captures some basic features of educational choices in the United States in...

We show by Monte Carlo simulations that the jackknife estimation of QUENOUILLE (1956) provides substantial bias reduction for the estimation of short-term interest rate models applied in CHAN ET AL. (1992) - hereafter CKLS (1992). We find that an alternative estimation based on NOWMAN (1997)...

Within the framework of the Basel III capital regulation, macroprudential authorities may order the accumulation of countercyclical capital buffers in the period when systemic risks are building up. According to recommendations, it is worth setting the size of the capital buffer on the basis of...

Using the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization theory, researchers have shown that the traditional estimated return greatly overestimates the theoretical optimal return, especially when the dimension to sample size ratio p/n is large. Bai, Liu, and Wong (2009) propose a...

A growing number of empirical studies provides evidence that dynamic properties of macroeconomic time series have been changing over time. Model-based procedures for the measurement of business cycles should therefore allow model parameters to adapt over time. In this paper the time dependencies...