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Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons
Fornari, Fabio; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2010
-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four …. - Recessions ; forecasting ; probit ; VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008688529
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What predicts U.S. recessions?
Liu, Weiling; Mönch, Emanuel - 2014
We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number … significantly improves the predictability of recessions at shorter horizons. Moreover, balances in broker-dealer margin accounts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404520
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Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect
Khandani, Amir E.; Lo, Andrew W.; Merton, Robert C. - 2009 - This draft: September 13, 2009
The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market - rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities - led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is benign, but when they occur...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003889053
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Stress Testing Made Easy : No More US Banks Stumbling and Facing Public Embarrassment Due to the Federal Reserve’s Qualitative Objection
Taskinsoy, John - 2019
The worst two financial crises in human history were in some ways attributable to the US Federal Reserve's misguided … housing bubbles, and the eventual GFC. The crises in the new millennium have cost investors over $30 trillion and pushed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890522
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Diminishing American Power : The US - China Trade War, Sanctions, and Coronavirus
Taskinsoy, John - 2020
Today, the problem facing the United States is not whether cryptocurrencies are money or “thin air,” Iran's nuclear ambition, or COVID-19 induced recession; it is China's fast acceleration in becoming a game changer in the world order that the U.S. has dominated for more than a century....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825152
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The Pricing-Out Phenomenon in the U.S. Housing Market
Beraldi, Francesco; Zhao, Yunhui - 2023
The COVID-19 pandemic further extended the multi-year housing boom in advanced economies and emerging markets alike against massive monetary easing during the pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the pricing-out phenomenon in the U.S. residential housing market due to higher house prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258218
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Geographies of Financial Stability : Bank Failures and Rescues in the United States During the Great Recession
Kreston, Nicholas - 2014
The 2008 financial crisis was the second instance since the Great Depression that many hundreds of financial institutions failed across the United States. The rescue staged by the federal government, however, was unprecedented in scale, involving an initial Congressional authorization of $700...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047654
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Banking Crises in the US : The Response of Top Income Shares in a Historical Perspective
Morelli, Salvatore - 2014
in the US to the occurrence of major systemic banking crises since the beginning of the twentieth century. The findings … suggest that the impact of banking crises on the US top income shares is mostly small in magnitude. Indeed, the estimated … total effect of crises is never bigger than one standard deviation of a specific top shares under investigation. Results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059732
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The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik - 2010
the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003973758
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Bayesian inference for the mixed-frequency VAR model
Viefers, Paul - 2011
In this paper a mixed-frequency VAR à la Mariano & Murasawa (2004) with Markov regime switching in the parameters is estimated by Bayesian inference. Unlike earlier studies, that used the pseuo-EM algorithm of Dempster, Laird & Rubin (1977) to estimate the model, this paper describes how to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579612