A comprehensive measure of economic uncertainty, known as "Policy Uncertainty", which was constructed by the Economic … Policy Uncertainty Group by searching popular newspapers for uncertain terms associated with economic factors and its impact … estimated, policy uncertainty had no long-run effects. However, when a nonlinear model was estimated, the results showed that …

This paper evaluates the predictive out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty …. The core contention is that economic uncertainty improves both forecast accuracy as well as direction-of-change forecasts … an increased relevance of certain economic uncertainty measures for forecasting growth in both real aggregate as well as …

featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US … accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the …We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation …

also essential for successful disinflation. Fiscal adjustment can help in this process and mitigate the risk of financial …

The rise of inflation in 2021 and 2022 surprised many macroeconomists who ignored the earlier surge in money growth … seeks to restore low inflation …

inflation uncertainty strongly predicts a more hawkish policy stance that is not explained either by the Fed's macroeconomic … forecasts or by public uncertainty proxies. We rationalize these results with a model of inflation tail risks and argue that the … effect of uncertainty on the FOMC's decisions reflects policymakers' concern with maintaining credibility for the inflation …

We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure … of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a … real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR with time-varying parameters. We use it to calculate the probability …

We calculate the magnitude of the government consumption multiplier in linearized and nonlinear solutions of a New … that the nonlinear solution is associated with a much smaller multiplier than the linearized solution in long …