(CDS) market and infer the likelihood of a U.S. default from these market prices. Beginning in January 2023, we document a … significant increase in U.S. CDS trading activity and positions, accompanied by a spike in CDS premiums. We estimate an increase … in part to the cheapening of deliverable Treasury collateral to CDS contracts. …

default swaps (CDS) market, as well as a spike in U.S. CDS premiums. Compared with the periods leading up to the 2011 and 2013 … debt ceiling episodes, we show that elevated CDS spreads in the current environment are partially explained by the … cheapening of deliverable Treasury collateral to CDS contracts. We infer the likelihood of a U.S. default from these CDS premiums …

.S. credit default swaps (CDS) market that took place during the 2023 debt ceiling episode. Unlike the periods leading up to the … 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling events, we show that in the recent episode elevated CDS spreads were partially due to the high … to CDS contracts. We infer the likelihood of a U.S. default from these CDS premiums and estimate an increase in the …

---using Markit CDS and Moody's Analytics EDF data. We find dramatic variation over time in credit risk premia, with peaks in 2002 …

captured by their CDS. The involvement of foreign investors leads to a significant increase in the target firms' CDS spreads …