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What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low : Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach

Abdih, Yasser - 2016

factors predominantly drive core goods price changes. When comparing forecasting performance, we find that both the aggregate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977854

Forecasting U.S. Inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging

Wright, Jonathan H. - 2003

Recent empirical work has considered the prediction of inflation by combining the information in a large number of time series. One such method that has been found to give consistently good results consists of simple equal weighted averaging of the forecasts over a large number of different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014075008

Posterior-predictive evidence on US inflation using extended Phillips curve models with non-filtered data

Basturk, Nalan; Çakmaklı, Cem; Ceyhan, Pinar; Dijk, … - 2013 - July 2013, revised October 2013

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended Phillips Curve (PC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010199052

Forecasting US inflation using Markov dimension switching

Prüser, Jan - 2017

MDS approach. In a forecasting exercise the MDS model compares favorably to the Bernoulli model for one quarter and one … year ahead inflation. In addition, it turns out that the performance of MDS model forecasting is competitive in comparison … with other models found to be useful in the inflation forecasting literature. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011720713

U.S. wage-price dynamics, before, during and after COVID-19, through the lens of an empirical econometric model

Bårdsen, Gunnar; Nymoen, Ragnar - 2024 - Preliminary version, 11 May 2024

We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the dynamic wage equation an equilibrium-correction term connects the wage level to industrial prosperity indicators. In that way, the role of wage setting in the dynamics of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014577654

The role of commodity prices in forecasting U.S. core inflation

Gospodinov, Nikolaj - 2016

This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity futures prices for U.S. core inflation. The proposed aggregator reduces the out-of-sample root mean squared error for 12-month-ahead inflation forecasts of the benchmark AR(1)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011428084

Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Lansing, Kevin J. - 2006

This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational expectations into an otherwise standard New Keynesian Phillips curve … this simple model of inflation expectations can generate time-varying inflation dynamics similar to those observed in long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014058587

The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy : What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us

Meade, Ellen E. - 2011

The Phillips curve framework, which includes the output gap and natural rate hypothesis, plays a central role in the canonical macroeconomic model used in analyses of monetary policy. It is now well understood that real-time data must be used to evaluate historical monetary policy. We believe...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133351

Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation Using Phillips Curve Models with Non-Filtered Time Series

Basturk, Nalan - 2013

frequencies are carefully modeled. Modeling inflation expectations using survey data and adding level shifts and stochastic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088790

Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation Using Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models with Non-Filtered Data

Basturk, Nalan - 2014

volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich PC models. Estimated inflation expectations track nicely the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013063479