Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 1,651
Cover Image
Posterior-predictive evidence on US inflation using extended Phillips curve models with non-filtered data
Basturk, Nalan; Çakmaklı, Cem; Ceyhan, Pinar; Dijk, … - 2013 - July 2013, revised October 2013
Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended Phillips Curve (PC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010199052
Cover Image
U.S. wage-price dynamics, before, during and after COVID-19, through the lens of an empirical econometric model
Bårdsen, Gunnar; Nymoen, Ragnar - 2024 - Preliminary version, 11 May 2024
We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the dynamic wage equation an equilibrium-correction term connects the wage level to industrial prosperity indicators. In that way, the role of wage setting in the dynamics of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014577654
Cover Image
The role of commodity prices in forecasting U.S. core inflation
Gospodinov, Nikolaj - 2016
This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity futures prices for U.S. core inflation. The proposed aggregator reduces the out-of-sample root mean squared error for 12-month-ahead inflation forecasts of the benchmark AR(1)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011428084
Cover Image
Posterior-predictive evidence on US inflation using Philips curve models with non-filtered time series
Basturk, Nalan; Çakmaklı, Cem; Ceyhan, Pinar; Dijk, … - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724100
Cover Image
Empirical estimates of changing inflation dynamics
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C.; Olivei, Giovanni P.; Tootell, … - 2009
This paper provides an array of empirical evidence bearing on potentially important changes in the dynamics of U.S. inflation. We examine the overall performance of Phillips curves relative to some well-known benchmarks, the efficiency with which the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook forecasts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003842109
Cover Image
The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy : What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us
Meade, Ellen E. - 2011
The Phillips curve framework, which includes the output gap and natural rate hypothesis, plays a central role in the canonical macroeconomic model used in analyses of monetary policy. It is now well understood that real-time data must be used to evaluate historical monetary policy. We believe...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133351
Cover Image
Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation Using Phillips Curve Models with Non-Filtered Time Series
Basturk, Nalan - 2013
frequencies are carefully modeled. Modeling inflation expectations using survey data and adding level shifts and stochastic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088790
Cover Image
Will US Inflation Awake from the Dead? The Role of Slack and Non-Linearities in the Phillips Curve
Albuquerque, Bruno - 2017
curve model that takes into account inflation persistence, inflation expectations, supply shocks and labour market slack as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963919
Cover Image
Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
Lansing, Kevin J. - 2009
This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The …'s perception of a unit root in inflation to become close to self-fulfilling. In a "consistent expectations equilibrium," the value … misspecification of the forecast rule. I show that this simple model of inflation expectations can generate time-varying persistence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159894
Cover Image
Explaining the Recent Behavior of Inflation and Unemployment in the United States
Hogan, Vincent - 2006
Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that, while the NAIRU...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782134