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We propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector autoregressions. Unlike most of the previous literature this approach does not require that the contemporaneous reaction of some variables to fiscal policy shocks be set to zero or need additional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003147823
the effects of fiscal shocks, keeping track of the debt dynamics that arise following a fiscal shock and allowing for the … possibility that taxes, spending, and interest rates might respond to the level of the debt as it evolves over time. We show that … the absence of a debt feedback effect can result in incorrect estimates of the dynamic effects of fiscal shocks. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003715720
The euro area is facing crisis, while the US is not, though the overall fiscal situation and outlook is better in the euro area than in the US, and though the US faces serious state-level fiscal crises. A higher level of fiscal federalism would strengthen the euro area, but is not inevitable....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008668706
We use a threshold VAR analysis to study whether the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity differ depending on financial market conditions. In particular, we investigate the possibility of a non-linear propagation of fiscal developments according to different financial market stress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009152600
This paper argues that the usual framing of discussions of money, monetary policy, and fiscal policy plays into the hands of conservatives.That framing is also largely consistent with the conventional view of the economy and of society more generally. To put it the way that economists usually...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009665525
How much additional tax revenue can the government generate by increasing labor income taxes? In this paper we provide a quantitative answer to this question, and study the importance of the progressivity of the tax schedule for the ability of the government to generate tax revenues. We develop...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010428164
government debt ratio shock and about 48% for the budget balance shock. In Germany, fiscal shocks entail no significant reactions … shocks created no response from the yield curve shape, (ii) surprise increases in the debt ratio caused some increase in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008771792
This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real-time data. This literature can be broadly divided in three groups that focus on: (1) the statistical properties of revisions in fiscal data; (2) the political and institutional determinants of projection errors by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009405594
We examine the effects of the economy on the government budget as well as the effects of the budget on the economy. First, we provide measures of the effects of automatic stabilizers on budget outcomes at the federal and state and local levels. For the federal government, the deficit increases...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137649
fact, these events, combined with subsequent slow growth and two continuing unfunded wars, have resulted in a national debt … deficit and debt problem: the debt ceiling debate, and the subsequent Standard & Poor's credit downgrade of U.S. Treasury … borrowing and pay down debt.The government deficit and debt are inextricably connected to economic growth. As such, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120084