This paper decomposes the causal effect of government defense spending into: (i) a local (or direct) effect, and (ii) a spillover (or indirect) effect. Using state-level defense spending data, we show that a negative cross-state spillover effect explains the existing simultaneous findings of a...

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis monthly journal of record presents summary estimates and analyses of U.S. economic activity. It includes articles about the national, regional, and international economic accounts and related topics. It also presents the latest estimates of the national...

We reconsider the role of financial intermediaries in monetary economics. We explore the hypothesis that financial intermediaries drive the business cycle by way of their role in determining the price of risk. In this framework, balance sheet quantities emerge as a key indicator of risk appetite...

In this review essay of Medema's and Waterman's collection of some of Samuelson's writings in the history of economics, the author argues that Samuelson's claim to have written “Whig History” is spurious. Moreover the author argues that Samuelson's own writings on modern economics are,...

In recent years, the US public debt has grown rapidly, with last fiscal year's deficit reaching nearly $1.3 trillion. Meanwhile, many of the euro nations with large amounts of public debt have come close to bankruptcy and loss of capital market access. The same may soon be true of many US states...

Recent research has examined trade statistics from a value-added perspective and it has traced global value chains (GVC) through countries' domestic production, exports and imports. Research by Koopman et al., Johnson and Noguera, Timmer, and OECD-WTO has made clear that our understanding of...

U.S. exporters have choices when it comes to determining in which markets to sell their firms' products and services. These choices depend on several factors, including market size, income levels, price sensitivity, competition, consumer preferences, and other demand conditions in the recipient...

This paper represents the first in a series on U.S. manufacturing offshoring. It describes why many U.S. firms have relocated production networks to China, the world's largest manufacturing economy. As the U.S. economy has become increasingly dependent on the provision of services and the...

This briefing is part of a continuing series on U.S. manufacturing offshoring and examines what is known about the size and composition of U.S. offshoring activity to China. An accompanying paper described incentives U.S. firms have had to offshore production to China, the world's largest...

In this study, I analyze the impact of the aggregate, income, corporate, and social security tax revenues on both the U.S. output and the stock market return in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework between 1960:Q1 and 2015:Q4. Unlike some of the other studies, I use not only...