I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder in the United States (1900-2004). Separating out permanent from cyclical murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, breakdowns in...

In a recently published article, Allen et al. (2020) argue that U.S. military deployments nurture favorable attitudes toward the U.S. among foreign citizens. Their claim is based on social contact and economic compensation theories, applied to a large-scale cross-national survey project funded...

We study the 420 US drone strikes in Pakistan from 2006-2016, isolating causal effects on terrorism, anti-US sentiment, and radicalization via an instrumental variable strategy based on wind. Drone strikes are suggested to encourage terrorism in Pakistan, bearing responsibility for 16 percent of...

Britain is not an independent nuclear power. Its nuclear warheads and delivery systems depend upon American supplied management and technology and have done so since the dawn of the nuclear age. For years these matters were classified and today both governments only supply partial information....

After a rocky start to the volunteer military in the late 1970s, since 1980 the United States military services have met or exceeded their recruiting and retention goals in most years and have done so at reasonable cost. The ongoing conflict in Iraq is the U.S. military's first protracted...

Summary • Putin and Trump, leaders arguably with hostile powers. Their meeting holds significant importance in history, requiring scenario planning to structure long-term business relationships and a defense playground for both countries.• It will provide assurances; to the operating...

This paper continues my research program on violence and terrorism started 15 years ago. It presents in the first part through empirical exercises, the suitability of The Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks. It presents...

I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of murder in the United States (1900-2004). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions,...

We build a model of conflict in which two groups contest a resource and must decide on the optimal allocation of labor between fighting and productive activities. In this setting, a diaspora emanating from one of the two groups can get actively involved in the conflict by transferring financial...