We propose a new measure of the expected variance risk premium that is based on a forecast of the conditional variance from a GARCH-MIDAS model. We find that the new measure has strong predictive ability for future U.S. aggregate stock market returns and rationalize this result by showing that...

The paper investigates the ability of oil price returns, oil price shocks and oil price volatility to provide predictive information on the state (high/low risk environment) of the US stock market returns and volatility. The disaggregation of oil price shocks according to their origin allows us...

We propose a nonparametric method to test which characteristics provide independent information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...

We examine the stock market valuation of large and systemic U.S. banks over the period 2003Q4-2014Q1. These are the banks included in a series of supervisory capital review and stress tests conducted annually since 2009 by the Federal Reserve. We extend Gordon's growth model of stock valuation,...

As stock market indexes are not tradeable, the importance and trading volume of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) cannot be understated. ETFs track and attempt to replicate the performance of a specific index. Numerous studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the S&P500 Composite Index...

This paper proposes estimating β in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) using a functional data analysis approach. After explicitly deriving parameter estimates and a prediction function for a functional CAPM, this paper compares the predictive power of the functional CAPM against two...

We investigate the relationship between long-term U.S. stock market risks and the macroeconomic environment using a two component GARCH-MIDAS model. Our results provide strong evidence in favor of counter-cyclical behavior of long-term stock market volatility. Among the various macro variables...

Using variance risk premiums (VRPs) nonparametrically calculated from equity markets in selected major developed economies and emerging market economies (EMEs) over 2007 - 2015, we document the correlation of VRPs across the markets and examine whether equity fund flows work as a path through...

We analyze link between mortgage-related regulatory penalties levied on banks and the level of systemic risk in the U.S. banking industry. We employ a frequency decomposition of volatility spillovers (connectedness) to assess system-wide risk transmission with short-, medium-, and long-term...

The question of whether empirical models are able to forecast the equity premium more accurately than the simple historical mean is intensively debated in the financial literature. The low prediction power is disappointing, even when using nonparametric models that make use of typical predictor...