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revealing the subject's privately held information. In an experiment, we apply the mechanisms to reveal beliefs about … probabilities. On the aggregate level, both mechanisms accurately reveal mean first-order beliefs of the population. On the subject … level, the modal difference between probabilities elicited in either mechanism and actual first-order beliefs is zero. The …
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It is widely hypothesized that anxiety and worry about an uncertain future lead to the adoption of comforting beliefs …
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