Showing 1 - 10 of 2,005
We propose the use of Google online search data for nowcasting and forecasting the number of food stamps recipients. We … perform a large out-of-sample forecasting exercise with almost 3000 competing models with forecast horizons up to 2 years … ahead, and we show that models including Google search data statistically outperform the competing models at all considered …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045693
We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict … the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our … in comparison with the Survey of Professional Forecasters. -- Google Econometrics ; Forecast Comparison ; Keyword Search …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008702857
We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict … the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014195886
Index. The results show that in almost all conducted in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting experiments the Google … significant benefits to forecasters of private consumption. -- Google Trends ; private consumption ; forecasting ; Consumer …In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003903709
comparison methodology, we find that boosting is a serious competitor for forecasting US industrial production growth in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008757436
This paper presents a novel dynamic factor model for non-stationary data. We begin by constructing a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium growth model and show that we can represent and estimate the model using a simple linear-Gaussian (Kalman) filter. Crucially, consistent estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011669132
subject to revisions. This makes them an excellent source of information for the macroeconomic forecasting. -- Google …The Google Insights data are a collection of recorded Internet searches for a huge number of the keywords, which are … consumption based on both the conventional consumer confidence indicators and the Google indicators. The latter are extracted from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003897268
In this paper, we investigate whether the Google search activity can help in nowcasting the year-on-year growth rates … of monthly US private consumption using a real-time data set. The Google-based forecasts are compared to those based on a …-Mariano test of equal predictive ability, the null hypothesis can be rejected suggesting that Google-based forecasts are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003958670
In this paper, we investigate whether the Google search activity can help in nowcasting the year-on-year growth rates … of monthly US private consumption using a real-time data set. The Google-based forecasts are compared to those based on a …-Mariano test of equal predictive ability, the null hypothesis can be rejected suggesting that Google-based forecasts are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008729133
In this paper, we investigate whether the Google search activity can help in nowcasting the year-on-year growth rates … of monthly US private consumption using a real-time data set. The Google-based forecasts are compared to those based on a …-Mariano test of equal predictive ability, the null hypothesis can be rejected suggesting that Google-based forecasts are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116093