Using 136 United States macroeconomic indicators from 1973 to 2017, and a factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) framework with sign restrictions, we investigate the effects of three structural macroeconomic shocks - monetary, demand, and supply - on the labour market outcomes of black...

We use a time-varying parameter dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV) estimated using Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in FHFA house price movements from state-specific shocks, over the quarterly period of 1975Q2 to 2017Q4. We...

This article re-examines the findings of Stock and Watson (2012b) who assessed the predictive performance of dynamic factor models (DFM) over autoregressive (AR) bench-marks for hundreds of target variables by focusing on possible business cycle performance asymmetries in the spirit of Chauvet...

We introduce a dynamic network model with probabilistic link functions that depend on stochastically time-varying parameters. We adopt the widely used blockmodel framework and allow the high-dimensional vector of link probabilities to be a function of a low-dimensional set of dynamic factors....

This article re-examines the findings of Stock and Watson (2012b) who assessed the predictive performance of dynamic factor models (DFM) over autoregressive (AR) bench-marks for hundreds of target variables by focusing on possible business cycle performance asymmetries in the spirit of Chauvet...

Dynamic factor models and external instrument identification are two recent advances in the empirical macroeconomic literature. This paper combines the two approaches in order to study the effects of monetary policy shocks. I use this novel framework to re-examine the effects found by Forni and...

Based on SVAR models identified by sign restrictions, we estimate the macroeconomic effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in the euro area and the US, paying particular attention to their effects on prices. While our results confirm that such disturbances are important drivers of output...

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and five. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign...

We identify structural vector autoregressions using narrative sign restrictions. Narrative sign restrictions constrain the structural shocks and the historical decomposition around key historical events, ensuring that they agree with the established narrative account of these episodes. Using...

We investigate the relationship between inflation uncertainty and monetary policy transmission in the U.S. economy. Monetary policy shocks are identified within the framework of nonlinear structural factor-augmented VARs which allow us to analyze several complementary hypotheses connecting IU...