Contrary to claims by Gul and Pesendorfer (2008), I show that standard economics makes use of non-choice evidence in a meaningful way. This is because standard economics solely grounded in the theory of choice is "incomplete". That is, it has content that can not be revealed with any general...

We discover and document errors in public use microdata samples ("PUMS files") of the 2000 Census, the 2003-2006 American Community Survey, and the 2004-2009 Current Population Survey. For women and men ages 65 and older, age- and sex-specific population estimates generated from the PUMS files...

Maniadis et al. (2013) present a theoretical framework that aims at providing insights into the mechanics of proper inference. They suggest that a decision about whether to call an experimental finding noteworthy, or deserving of great attention, should be based on the calculated post-study...

Following an extensive reevaluation of existing indicators included in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for The United States, we propose a comprehensive revision of the composite index. In this paper we present the case for replacing three of the components and making a minor...

We apply an unsupervised machine learning algorithm to revisit legislative lags of U.S. tax reforms and show that at least two lags have been longer than previously identified. Our approach offers an alternative way to approximate U.S. tax foresight, given that the relationship between tax...

The number and magnitude of devastating natural and human events make it imperative that we actively and systematically estimate the costs and benefits of policy decisions in affected localities, regions, states, and nations. Such strategic risk management preparedness efforts should forecast...

This report presents the results of a rapid, low-cost survey that collects labor market data for individuals in the United States. The Yale Labor Survey (YLS) used an online panel from YouGov to replicate statistics from the Current Population Survey (CPS), the government’s source of household...

Differentiating between standard risk measures and downside risk has a longstanding tradition in finance. Interestingly, this fundamental distinction has been neglected in the literature on risk sharing. Drawing on a simple definition in Markowitz (1959), we translate downside-risk metrics...

This paper describes the gaps and limitations in the data available on urban populations for many low- and middle-income nations and how this limits the accuracy of international comparisons - for instance of levels of urbanization and of the size of city populations. It also discusses how the...

There is a fundamental difference between the natural and the social sciences due to reactivity. This difference remains even in the age of Artificially Intelligent Learning Machines and Big Data. Many academic economists take it as a matter of course that economics should become a natural...