There is evidence in the economic literature that professional forecasters are unsuccessful in predicting recessions, but the reasons for these failures are still not clear. Meanwhile, this phenomenon has been little studied on the basis of quarterly estimates for various target horizons. We...

There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert forecasts of real GDP growth rates. Other evidence concerns differences in the accuracy of GDP forecasts made during expansions and those made during contractions. It has also been...

This paper demonstrates that cyclical movements of major industrial market groups (durable and nondurable consumer products, equipment, materials and supplies) have important peculiarities in Russia and in the US. It allows a better understanding of business cycles in national economies...