Extremely narrow election outcomes--such as could be reversed by rejecting a few thousand ballots--are likely to … College system. Starting from probabilistic simulations of likely presidential election outcomes that are similar to the … output from election forecasting models, we calculate the likelihood of disputable, narrow outcomes under the Electoral …

candidate wins the election according to the electoral college, but loses the popular vote. We then consider how this likelihood …. We conclude that rising polarization of political beliefs leading up to the 2020 election has made these two election …