Hayo, Bernd; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2009
(FOMC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 75 target … rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find, first, that FOMC communication is forward-looking, with a horizon that goes … beyond the next meeting. Second, our communication indicators significantly explain target rate changes and improve …