We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extending it in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying...

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables, using the example of age-specific mortality in the United States, building on the LeeCarter approach and extending it in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables...

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections since 1952. We envision a...

Using a highly stylized dynamic microsimulation model, we project the labor force of the United States up to the year 2060 and contrast these projections with projections for Germany to assess differential effects on outcomes The projections are consistent with the U S Census Bureau’s and...

Using a highly stylized dynamic microsimulation model, we project the labor force of the United States up to the year 2060 and contrast these projections with projections for Germany to assess differential effects on outcomes The projections are consistent with the U S Census Bureau's and...

In a first-ever nation-wide census tract evaluation, we assess the accuracy of the Hamilton–Perry population projection method for 65,221 census tracts. We started with 73,607 census tracts but eliminated those for which zeros appeared in age/sex groups. The test uses 1990 and 2000 census...

In this article, we critically examine transformation and decline in US suburbs. We identify four distinct, chronological phases of development: suburban utopias, suburban conformity, suburban diversity, and suburban dichotomy. An element of this new suburban dichotomy is what we term suburban...

Using U.S. data for 1976-2013, this paper studies the effects of various macroeconomic variables, particularly the national debt, government budget deficits and taxes, on fertility decisions over the business cycle. A rise in the debt-GDP ratio, government spending-GDP ratio and the deficit-GDP...

This paper examines how marital and fertility patterns have changed along racial and educational lines for men and women. Historically, women with more education have been the least likely to marry and have children, but this marriage gap has eroded as the returns to marriage have changed....