Baccini, Leonardo; Brodeur, Abel; Weymouth, Stephen - 2021
What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we … estimate the effect of COVID- 19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020 … states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election …