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year of a gubernatorial election, the elasticity of investment to the eventual margin of victory is 0.027. Both the …
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What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we … estimate the effect of COVID- 19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020 … states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election …
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What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we … estimate the effect of COVID- 19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020 … counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. Our paper …
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and the subsequent pursuit of a Congressional career. The empirical approach uses a sample of mixed-gender elections to … election relative to an analogous impact for men who closely win or lose a state legislature election. We find that the effect …
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