This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity … futures prices for U.S. core inflation. The proposed aggregator reduces the out-of-sample root mean squared error for 12-month …-ahead inflation forecasts of the benchmark AR(1) model by 28 percent (20 percent) for the PCE (CPI) measure of core inflation. To …

This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity … futures prices for U.S. core inflation. The proposed aggregator reduces the out-of-sample root mean squared error for 12-month …-ahead inflation forecasts of the benchmark AR(1) model by 28 percent (20 percent) for the PCE (CPI) measure of core inflation. To …

We analyze real-time forecasts of US inflation over 1999Q3-2019Q4 and subsamples, investigating whether and how … forecast accuracy and robustness can be improved with additional information such as expert judgment, additional macroeconomic … variables, and forecast combination. The forecasts include those from the Federal Reserve Board's Tealbook, the Survey of …

einer naiven Random Walk Prognose. Auch die Verwendung des Terminkurses als Prognose für die zukünftige … dar, von der sie sich bei der Erstellung der Prognose nicht lösen können. Zum anderen erfolgt die Anpassung der Prognose …

forecasts, this bias tending to be higher in countries with less investor protection. This forecast bias declined significantly …

We forecast quarterly US stock returns using eighteen predictor variables both individually and in multivariate … regressions, with the former also used in forecast combinations. Using rolling and recursive approaches, we consider a range of … statistical and economic evaluation measures. We consider linear and non-linear regressions as well as forecast evaluations over …