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macroeconomic factors that influence credit risk in the peer-to-peer (P2P) lending market. By aggregating the United States (US …
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This paper investigates the role of bank credit in predicting U.S. recessions since the 1960s in the context of a … bivariate probit model. A set of results emerge. First, credit booms are shown to have strong positive effects in predicting … declines in the business cycle at horizons ranging from six to nine months. Second, I propose to isolate the effect of credit …
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