The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market - rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities - led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is benign, but when they occur...

This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate), for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1 to 1994:Q4; and then forecasts one-to-four quarters-ahead real house price...

We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the dynamic wage equation an equilibrium-correction term connects the wage level to industrial prosperity indicators. In that way, the role of wage setting in the dynamics of the...

Cross-country regressions suggest that urbanization and FDI are important drivers of growth. However, it is not clear that primacy eventually hurts growth performance. Since it is tough to interpret cross-country growth regressions, we provide detailed evidence on the determinants of outward FDI...