We study the impact of the 2018-2019 trade war on U.S. local labor markets, distinguishing between regional exposure to foreign tariffs on U.S. exports, U.S. import tariffs, and U.S. tariffs on intermediate inputs. We find foreign retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports have led to an increase in...

During the 2018-2019 trade war, U.S. exports have been affected by foreign retaliatory tariffs, U.S. import tariffs that act through input-output linkages, and policy uncertainty. We establish, first, that the large negative impact of foreign tariffs on U.S. exports is highly heterogeneous...

Recent research concludes that wage returns to cognitive skills have declined in the U.S. We reassess this finding. Using decomposition methods, we document the pivotal role played by dynamic shifts in the distributions of pre-labor market cognitive skills. Our findings show these shifts explain...

This paper examines the effect of the U.S-China trade war on Chinese firms. I use quarterly data on more than two thousand listed firms to document that firms in industries with a higher share of output exported to the U.S. have had lower revenue and profits since the start of the trade war....

This paper studies the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on U.S. local labor markets, based on cross-regional variation in exposure to the U.S. and Mexico's tariff liberalization. Lower U.S. tariffs led to a relative decline in the share of the working-age population employed in...

The recent literature on instrumental variables (IV) features models in which agents sort into treatment status on the basis of gains from treatment as well as on baseline-pretreatment levels. Components of the gains known to the agents and acted on by them may not be known by the observing...