For several decades, theorists and researchers have emphasized investigating and analyzing the likelihood of contagion of turbulence among markets. The behavior of the housing market is also essential because of the impact of housing prices on the loan portfolios of banks and other financial...

The 2006 sudden and immense downturn in U.S. House Prices sparked the 2007 global financial crisis and revived the interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting methodology that combines the Ensemble Empirical Mode...

We implement several Bayesian and classical models to forecast housing prices in 20 US states. In addition to standard vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, we also include the information content of 308 additional quarterly series in some models. Several...

We employ a 10-variable dynamic structural general equilibrium model to forecast the US real house price index as well as its turning point in 2006:Q2. We also examine various Bayesian and classical time-series models in our forecasting exercise to compare to the dynamic stochastic general...

We study the house price recovery in the U.S. single-family residential housing market since the outbreak of the mortgage crisis, which, in contrast to the preceding housing boom, was not accompanied by a rise in homeownership rates. Using comprehensive property-level transaction data, we show...

In this paper we develop and estimate a behavioral model with boundedly rational investors for the U.S. housing market. There are two groups of investors, fundamentalists and chartists. Fundamentalists expect the house price to revert to its fundamental value based on rents, while chartists...

This paper studies the role of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in the US housing boom-bust cycle. I find that the enhancement in CRA enforcement in 1998 increased the growth rate of mortgage lending by CRA-regulated banks to CRA-eligible census tracts. I show that during the boom period...

This paper studies the role of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in the US housing boom-bust cycle. I find that the enhancement in CRA enforcement in 1998 increased the growth rate of mortgage lending by CRA-regulated banks to CRA-eligible census tracts. I show that during the boom period...

This article examines the use of concessions in the US housing market, specifically payments for closing costs, home warranties, and structural repairs. This is the first study to examine the motivations and characteristics of homeowners that utilize concessions. It also examines the impact...

Are households more likely to be homeowners when “housing risk” is higher? We show that home-ownership rates and loan-to-value (LTV ) ratios at the city level are strongly negatively correlated with local house price volatility. However, causal inference is confounded by house price levels,...