Since 1981, the United States has managed a trade deficit that has become more negative with each passing year. Yet, economic growth has been on a positive trend. Is there a relationship between the two? Using annual data from 1950 to 2014, this article investigates the causal relationship...

Based on a version of the IMF's new Global Economic Model (GEM), calibrated to analyze macroeconomic interdependence between the United States and the rest of the world, this paper asks to what extent an asymmetric productivity shock in the tradable sector of the economy may account for real...