We provide a new way to filter US inflation into trend and cycle components, based on extracting long-run forecasts …, then estimating parameters, and then extracting the stochastic trend in inflation. The trend-cycle model with unobserved … components is consistent with numerous studies of US inflation history and is of interest partly because the trend may be viewed …

Using state-space modeling, we extract information from surveys of long-term inflation expectations and multiple … quarterly inflation series to undertake a real-time decomposition of quarterly headline PCE and GDP-deflator inflation rates … approaches to real-time forecasting of headline PCE inflation. We find that performance is enhanced if forecasting equations are …

estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … measure appears superior to all others in all respects. - Output gap ; real-time data ; euro area ; inflation forecasts ; real …

persistence of U.S. inflation. We evaluate these features by comparing the out-of-sample forecast performance of two … errors depends on the level of inflation. The results of the comparison show that the parametric quantile forecasts are at … least as accurate as the semi-parametric QAR model, in particular for the core inflation measures. This leads us to conclude …

Much of the US inflation forecasting literature deals with examining the ability of macroeconomic indicators to predict … the mean of future inflation, and the overwhelming evidence suggests that the macroeconomic indicators provide little or … no predictability. In this paper, we expand the scope of inflation predictability and explore whether macroeconomic …

-price changes and the extent to which the fraction of price changes increases with inflation in the U.S. time-series. Though the …

Using frequency domain techniques to separate short and long run dynamics and decomposing inflation into its common and … idiosyncratic components, we study the regime dependence of the inflation-RPV relation in Argentina and the USA. Under High … inflation, strong long-run comovement between RPV and Inflation is found for both economies, that extends to the short run …

Extending recent theoretical contributions on sources of inflation inertia, we argue that monetary uncertainty accounts …