output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap … forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap …

Zeitpunkten werden präsentiert und diskutiert. -- Mehrländermodell ; Prognose ; Bayesianische Ökonometrie …

This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity … avoid obfuscation of the sources of forecast ability, the model is intentionally kept simple, although extensions for … improving and increasing the robustness of the forecast procedure are also discussed. …

forecasters is consistent with evidence on mean forecast errors. We find considerable evidence of inflation-gap persistence and …

This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity … avoid obfuscation of the sources of forecast ability, the model is intentionally kept simple, although extensions for … improving and increasing the robustness of the forecast procedure are also discussed …

modifies a wage–price-setting (WPS) model to forecast U.S. inflation over one- to three-year horizons. The out …-of-sample forecast results show that productivity growth is a useful predictor of inflation, in the sense that the modified WPS model … improves upon some univariate benchmark models during the 1990Q1–2020Q2 period. Since the early 2000s, forecast accuracy can be …

This paper proposes an empirical investigation of the impact of oil price forecast errors on inflation forecast errors … oil price forecast errors to the explanation of inflation forecast errors, whatever the country or the period considered …. Second, the pass-through of oil price forecast errors to inflation forecast errors is multiplied by around 2 when the oil …

We propose a long-term forecast model based on linear growth and mean reversion characteristics in the U.S. stock … market. It can forecast future returns of the stock market, Treasury yield, and gold price. The “jubilee” name comes from its … mystery of lofty CAPE. These five factors form the forecast model for the 10 and 20-year future equity returns with high R …