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Can US monetary policy fall (again) into an expectation trap?

Armenter, Roc (contributor); Bodenstein, Martin (contributor) - 2005

We provide a tractable model to study monetary policy under discretion. We restrict our analysis to Markov equilibria. We find that for all parametrizations with an equilibrium inflation rate of about 2 percent, there is a second equilibrium with an inflation rate just above 10 percent. Thus,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003226075

The relationship between oil prices and long-term interest rates

Reicher, Christopher Phillip; Utlaut, Johannes - 2010

We estimate a seven-variable-VAR for the U.S. economy on postwar data using long-run restrictions, taking changes in long-run interest rates and inflation expectations into account. We find a strong connection between oil prices and long-run nominal interest rates which has lasted throughout the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983006

Are US inflation expectations re-anchored?

Nautz, Dieter; Strohsal, Till - 2014

Anchored inflation expectations are of key importance for monetary policy. If long-terminflation expectations arewell-anchored, they should be unaffected by short-term economic news. This letter introduces newsregressions with multiple endogenous breaks to investigate the de- and re-anchoring of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010418019

Can U.S. Monetary Policy Fall (Again) into an Expectation Trap?

Armenter, Roc; Bodenstein, Martin - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014061211

Disagreement à la Taylor : evidence from survey microdata

Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael - 2015

There is a growing interest in studying the disagreement of economic agents. Most studies, however, focus on the disagreement regarding one specific variable, hereby neglecting that disagreement may be comoving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper we explore to which extent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010504015

Central bank accountability and transparency : theory and some evidence

Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W.; Hoeberichts, Marco - 2000

System). In the second part, we present a theory of central bank accountability. Two aspects of accountability are considered … Japan, Bank of England und Federal Reserve System). Im zweiten Teil stellen wir eine Theorie über die Rechenschaftspflicht … Geldpolitik und die Frage, wer die endgültige Verantwortung für die Geldpolitik trägt. Das Papier zeigt auf, dass die …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418852

Central Bank Communication and Disagreement about the Natural Rate Hypothesis

Binder, Carola - 2019

About half of professional forecasters report that they use the natural rate of unemployment (u*) to forecast. I show that forecasters' reported use of and estimates of u* are informative about their expectations-formation process, including their use of a Phillips curve. Those who report not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897100

New paradigms in monetary theory and policy?

Balling, Morten (ed.); Orphanides, Athanasios (ed.) - New Paradigms in Money and Finance? <Veranstaltung> …; … - 2012

On 11-12 May 2011, SUERF and the Belgian Financial Forum, in association with the Brussels Finance Institute and the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) organized the 29th SUERF Colloquium "New Paradigms in Money and Finance?". All the papers in the present SUERF Study are based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011711450

The sensitivity of long-term interest rates to economic news : comment

Barnes, Michelle L.; Pancost, N. Aaron - 2010

Refet Gürkaynak, Brian Sack, and Eric Swanson (2005) provide empirical evidence that long forward nominal rates are overly sensitive to monetary policy shocks, and that this is consistent with a model where long-term inflation expectations are not anchored because agents must infer the central...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008663345

Monetary policy rules and oil price shocks

Kamps, Christophe; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2002

This paper studies the relative performance of alternative monetary policy rules in the presence of oil price shocks in a small open economy optimizing model. Our analysis shows that it is important to distinguish between alternative price indices (CPI, core CPI, and GDP deflator) when modeling...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474645

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