contributory factor to this conundrum was the contemporaneous increase in US bond demand. Using ARDL-based models, which … accommodate structural breaks, this paper estimates the impact of demand on US bond yields in the conundrum period. This impact is … shown to have been everywhere significantly negative. The fact that our model fully explains the bond yield conundrum gives …

has marked the outer boundary of Treasury bond maturities. However, longer-term bonds were not unknown in earlier years …

principles. Empirically, we show that four factors explain the discount bond excess return curve and term structure premium. Cash …

government bonds to derive expected inflation rates and the corresponding inflation risk premia, in the euro area and in the … factors and one inflation factor; the model provides substantial information related to expected inflation and inflation risk …