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This paper uses variation in the timing of the Mexican antipoverty program's introduction across municipalities to identify its impact on the share of votes for the local incumbent party. Evidence is found that voters reward the mayor's party for the central benefit to their constituencies,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011289331
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009622416
This paper develops a new approach to detecting electoral fraud. Our context involves repeaters, individuals voting in multiple states in the U.S. during 19th Century Congressional Elections. Given high travel times, and the associated difficulties of voting in multiple states on the same day,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362047
The current polarization of elites in the U.S., particularly in Congress, is frequently ascribed to the emergence of cohorts of ideologically extreme legislators replacing moderate ones. Politicians, however, do not operate as isolated agents, driven solely by their preferences. They act within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236232
year of a gubernatorial election, the elasticity of investment to the eventual margin of victory is 0.027. Both the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451061
Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the … indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during election day. Analyzing high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003289884
candidate wins the election according to the electoral college, but loses the popular vote. We then consider how this likelihood …. We conclude that rising polarization of political beliefs leading up to the 2020 election has made these two election …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838255
Much of the public discourse and media analysis of the surprise outcome of the 2016 US presidential election has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012954552
I examine county-level outcomes of the 2018 U.S. House elections to investigate whether voters electorally responded to the economic impacts of the trade war tariffs in 2018. I find causal evidence that votes for the incumbent president's party (Republican) increased in counties that benefited...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859371
We assess the influence of moneyed interests on legislative decisions. Our theory predicts that the vote outcome distribution and donation flows in a legislature feature a discontinuity at the approval threshold of bills if special interest groups are involved in vote buying. Testing the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861433