We quantify spillovers of inflation expectations between the United States (US) and Euro Area (EA) based on break …-even inflation (BEI) rates. In contrast to previous studies, we model US and EA BEI rates jointly in a structural vector … autoregressive (SVAR) model. The SVAR approach allows to identify US and EA specific inflation expectations shocks. By modeling the …

implications for monetary policy as the central bank has to decide which inflation rate to target. Our results demonstrate that …

area (EA) and the US. The estimations show that until mid-2014 the ECB's response to inflation was more forceful when … inflation was above 2% than below 2%. Since then, the ECB's policy can be characterised as symmetric, and we quantify the … bound and a low neutral real rate, and find that it prescribes a stronger response to inflation and the output gap when …

’ inflation expectations to their own lagged forecasts as well as proxies for the rational expectation forecasts. The model builds … in inflation expectations extensively documented in the literature. We estimate the model using data from two important … Survey of Consumer Expectations. We find that inflation expectations appear to correlate more strongly to measures of …

Since the 2001 recession, average core inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This deflationary bias … corrects the bias and brings inflation back on target. Adopting this asymmetric rule improves welfare and reduces the risk of …

We investigate the relationship between inflation uncertainty and monetary policy transmission in the U.S. economy … through the external finance premium and the term structure of interest rates appears strongly dependent on inflation …

with unemployment and bargaining frictions. Shocks to long-run inflation expectations appear to account for much of the … interest rate bound, interest rates and monetary aggregates provided a misleading indicator as to the true stance of inflation …

inflation and on unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the existence of the Taylor rule. Using micro survey data … mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. Exploring further determinants, we confirm that central bank transparency as well …

different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than their popular homogenous-firm counterparts: (1) the optimal steady …-state inflation rate generically differs from zero and (2) inflation optimally responds to productivity disturbances. We show this by … estimate the historically optimal inflation path for the U.S. economy. In the year 1977, the optimal inflation rate stood at 1 …