One of the most surprising features of the long current expansion has been the decline in price inflation through the … late 1990s. Some observers interpret the decline as evidence of a permanent change in the relationship between inflation … - most notably, a decrease in import prices - can account for the low inflation rates in recent years …

inflation, with emphasis on the role of oil shocks and accommodative monetary policy. The model features oil as a complementary … VAR. We then show that our model does a good job of explaining unemployment and inflation since 2010, including the recent … inflation surge that began in mid 2021. We show that mainly accounting for this surge was a combination oil price shocks and …

, and time-varying trend inflation using post-WWII U.S. data. The model embedding the stochastic target performs better in … policy aggressiveness and inflation gap persistence. …

. We find that for all parametrizations with an equilibrium inflation rate of about 2 percent, there is a second … equilibrium with an inflation rate just above 10 percent. Thus, the model can simultaneously account for the low and high … inflation episodes in the United States. We carefully characterize the set of Markov equilibria along the parameter space and …

We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the … conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation … rate. As economic theory provides reasons for inflation persistence to differ across conditional quantiles, this is a …

We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the … conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation … rate. As economic theory provides reasons for inflation persistence to differ across conditional quantiles, this is a …

long-run interest rates and inflation expectations into account. We find a strong connection between oil prices and long … strong relationship if inflation and oil prices were driven by monetary policy. The observed magnitude of this relationship … identify oil shocks. -- Oil shocks ; interest rates ; inflation …

We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United … inflation and interest rate expectations at various future horizons, as well as term structure data from both nominal and index …-linked bonds. Our results show that, in both currency areas, inflation risk premia are relatively small, positive, and increasing …

This paper estimates the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last 50 years and draws … predict persistent inflation outcomes. Time variation of the central bank's preference for output stability should be … reflected in changes in inflation persistence. We estimate an ARMA(1,q) model with a time-varying autoregressive parameter for …