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Forecasting value-at-risk using block structure multivariate stochastic volatility models
Asai, Manabu; Caporin, Massimiliano; McAleer, Michael - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767006
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On the Macroeconomic Determinants of Long-Term Volatilities and Correlations in U.S. Stock and Crude Oil Markets
Conrad, Christian - 2014
Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification, we endogenize the long-term correlation between crude oil and stock price returns with respect to the stance of the U.S. macroeconomy. We find that variables that contain information on current and future economic activity are helpful predictors of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066427
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The factor-spline-GARCH model for high and low frequency correlations
Rangel, Jose Gonzalo; Engle, Robert F. - 2009
frequency volatilities and correlations ; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Spline-GARCH ; Idiosyncratic volatility ; Long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063
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A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market
Valenti, Daniele; Bastianin, Andrea; Manera, Matteo - 2022
We present a weekly structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of the US crude oil market. Exploiting weekly data we can explain short-run crude oil price dynamics, including those related with the COVID-19 pandemic and with the Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The model is set identified with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013254444
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Time-varying predictability of oil market movements over a century of data : The role of US financial stress
Gupta, Rangan; Kanda, Patrick; Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; … - In: The North American journal of economics and finance : a … 50 (2019), pp. 1-11
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012201357
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Narrative sign restrictions for SVARs
Antolín-Díaz, Juan; Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco - 2016
We identify structural vector autoregressions using narrative sign restrictions. Narrative sign restrictions constrain the structural shocks and the historical decomposition around key historical events, ensuring that they agree with the established narrative account of these episodes. Using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011570683
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Prediction of financial downside-risk with heavy-tailed conditional distributions
Mittnik, Stefan; Paolella, Marc S. - 2003
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001788591
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Prediction of financial downside-risk with heavy-tailed conditional distributions
Mittnik, Stefan; Paolella, Marc S. - In: Handbook of heavy tailed distributions in finance, (pp. 385-404). 2003
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001882139
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Measuring inflation anchoring and uncertainty : a US and Euro area comparison
Grishchenko, Olesya; Mouabbi, Sarah; Renne, Jean-Paul - 2017
We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011803186
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A New Star Is Born : Does the VIX1D Render Common Volatility Forecasting Models for the U.S. Equity Market Obsolete?
Albers, Stefan - 2023
Due to the high relevance of 1-day volatility forecasts and the increasing demand for zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE …) options on the S&P 500, the Cboe recently introduced the 1-Day Volatility Index (VIX1D). Compared to the longer …-term volatility indices of the VIX family, it is overall lower and more volatile, shows a weaker negative correlation with the S&P 500 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348712