Showing 1 - 10 of 23,060
Not only the level of aggregate unemployment but also the properties of its dynamics are an important topic in … asymmetric pattern in the evolution of unemployment, whereas linear models with Gaussian innovations preclude such dynamics. This … paper applies several tests for asymmetry to aggregate British, German and US unemployment data to assess the relevance of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001623736
Not only the level of aggregate unemployment but also the properties of its dynamics are an important topic in … asymmetric pattern in the evolution of unemployment, whereas linear models with Gaussian innovations preclude such dynamics. This … paper applies several tests for asymmetry to aggregate British, German and US unemployment data to assess the relevance of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011403213
We exploit a policy discontinuity at U.S. state borders to identify the effects of unemployment insurance policies on … unemployment. Our estimates imply that most of the persistent increase in unemployment during the Great Recession can be accounted … for by the unprecedented extensions of unemployment benefit eligibility. In contrast to the existing recent literature …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010202667
This paper uses real-time briefing forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to provide estimates of historical changes in the design of U.S. monetary policy and in the implied central-bank target for inflation. Empirical results support a description of policy with an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003468917
This paper quantifies the deterioration of achievable stabilization outcomes when monetary policy operates under imperfect credibility and weak anchoring of long-term expectations. Within a medium-scale DSGE model, we introduce through a simple signal extraction problem, an imperfect knowledge...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867037
The current monetary policy framework of the Fed intends to be more 'inclusive' by running the economy hot for longer during expansions. The logic of this strategy rests on Okun's (1973) hypothesis that sustaining a 'high-pressure economy' persistently improves labor market outcomes of low-wage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015326481
Lucas (1972) is the pathbreaking analysis of the neutrality and temporary non-neutrality of money. But our central banks set interest rate targets, and do not even pretend to control money supplies. How is inflation determined under an interest rate target?
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388824
two factors, the tightening of the labor market as captured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, and the pass … simulate the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, focusing on the projections of Federal … Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent. We find that this unemployment path returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238516
The Unemployment Insurance (UI) system in the United States has played a decisive lifeline role in effectively … before - despite that the average duration of unemployment had almost doubled in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The … introduce - for example in Europe - a common unemployment insurance scheme for macroeconomic stabilization. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014414017
Over the past several decades, the rate at which regular unemployment insurance recipients run out of benefits before … recipients exhausted their benefits; in 2007 (with a similar unemployment rate) 35.6 percent exhausted. This paper documents the … increase in the exhaustion rate, along with the parallel rise in long-term unemployment; examines the consequences; and reviews …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009379440