Ball, Laurence M.; Leigh, Daniel; Mishra, Prachi - 2022
two factors, the tightening of the labor market as captured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, and the pass … simulate the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, focusing on the projections of Federal … Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent. We find that this unemployment path returns …