Much of the US inflation forecasting literature deals with examining the ability of macroeconomic indicators to predict … the mean of future inflation, and the overwhelming evidence suggests that the macroeconomic indicators provide little or … no predictability. In this paper, we expand the scope of inflation predictability and explore whether macroeconomic …

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The … model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence … curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied …

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The … model fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence … curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied …

persistence of U.S. inflation. We evaluate these features by comparing the out-of-sample forecast performance of two … errors depends on the level of inflation. The results of the comparison show that the parametric quantile forecasts are at … least as accurate as the semi-parametric QAR model, in particular for the core inflation measures. This leads us to conclude …

the observed time series. We develop a simulated maximum likelihood estimation method based on importance sampling and … applied to quarterly and monthly US inflation in an empirical study. We find that the persistence of quarterly inflation has … and density forecasts for monthly US inflation …

the observed time series. We develop a simulated maximum likelihood estimation method based on importance sampling and … applied to quarterly and monthly US inflation in an empirical study. We find that the persistence of quarterly inflation has … and density forecasts for monthly US inflation. …

USA and India reveal its superior performance compared to linear dummy variable models with fixed seasonality …

We present new empirical evidence for the US economy that inflation reduces the inequality of the earnings distribution … higher inflation on income distribution is shown to be rather small. However, we find that a longer duration between two …

investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations … are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat … inflation expectations bear little in common with the "prices in general" expectations reported by households. Next we show that …