Campbell, T. Colin; Gallmeyer, Michael F.; Petkevich, Alex - 2022
We examine the predictability of stock returns using implied volatility spreads (VS) from individual (non …-index) options. Volatility spreads can occur under simple no-arbitrage conditions for American options when volatility is time …-varying, suggesting that the VS-return predictability could be an artifact of firms’ sensitivities to aggregate volatility. Examining this …