We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure … of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a … real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR with time-varying parameters. We use it to calculate the probability …

conditions in Mexico, appreciate the peso/dollar exchange rate, lower the sovereign risk premium and forex volatility, and …

(FFR) and the deterioration of income inequality. Amid the great uncertainty over the FFR, this paper attempts to predict …

We use supervisory data to investigate the ex-ante credit risk taken by different types of lenders in the U …, take higher risk when longer-term interest rates decrease. The results are stronger for mutual funds that charge higher … are consistent with "search for yield" by nonbanks and with a risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Over the sample we …

We use supervisory data to investigate risk taking in the U.S. syndicated loan market at a time when longer …-term interest rates are exceptionally low, and we study the ex-ante credit risk of loans acquired by different types of lenders …-finance vehicles take higher credit risk when investors expect interest rates to remain low. Banks originate riskier loans that they …