We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic.Social distancing measures affect both supply and demand, and input-output constraints play a key role...

We propose a novel decomposition of the input-output linkage impact into linkage efficiency and linkage strength. We show that, for standard multisectoral models, countries' GDP growth rates are related to the average total backward linkages in the economy, which we call linkage strength, and to...