This paper deals with the problem how toestimate multicriteria utility functions of ordinalattributes under incomplete information. We investigatea probabilistic representation of a preference system. Bythis it is possible to communicate information about adecisionmaker’s preferences in the...

The paper presents the results of a novel experiment testing the effects of environment complexity on strategic behavior, using a centipede game. Behavior in the centipede game has been explained either by appealing to failures of backward induction or by calling for preferences that induce...

The paper reports an experimental study based on a variant of the popular Chinos game, which is used as a simple but paradigmatic instance of observational learning. There are three players, arranged in sequence, each of whom wins a fixed price if she manages to guess the total number of coins...

This paper studies a two-sided incomplete information bargaining model between a seller and a buyer. The buyer has an outside option, which is modeled as a sequential search process during which he can also choose to return to bargaining at any time. Two cases considered: In Regime I, both...

This experimental study investigates two bargaining games with twosided incomplete information between a seller and a buyer. In the first game with no outside options many subjects do not use the incomplete information to their advantage as predicted. We find that a model with adjusting priors...

In a Markov decision problem with hidden state variables, a posterior distribution serves as a state variable and Bayes' law under an approximating model gives its law of motion. A decision maker expresses fear that his model is misspecified by surrounding it with a set of alternatives that are...

In diesem Vortrag möchte ich keineswegs die fundamentalen Unterschiede in der "Philosophie" der beiden Autoren verwischen oder gar leugnen. Mein Anliegen ist der Versuch, gewisse Missverständnisse auszuräumen, die ein Hemmnis im gegenseitigen Verständnis heutiger "Keynesianer" und heutiger...

The 2002 prices of suppliers in German call-by-call telephone market are rather dispersed, out-of-phase (uncorrelated), and show systematic down-up movements. In 2004, these prices are less dispersed, more in-phase and show more upwards runs than downs-ups. In both years, we clearly do not...