In this study, we explore the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to domestic CPI and its components for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. Using the data of 2003:Q1- 2016:Q2, we estimate a VAR model and find significant but incomplete pass-through in all sample countries. The accumulated...

In this paper we propose Granger (non-)causality tests based on a VAR model allowing for time-varying coefficients. The functional form of the time-varying coefficients is a Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) model using time as the transition variable. The model allows for...

Modelling of conditional volatilities and correlations across asset returns is an integral part of portfolio decision making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations across markets, a trend which has been accentuated...

Determining the exchange rate pass-through on inflation is a necessity for central banks as well as for firms and households. This is an apparently easy and intuitive task, but it faces high complexity and uncertainty. This paper examines the short and long-term impact of an exchange rate shock...

We review, under a historical perspective, the developement of the problem of non-fundamentalness of Moving Average (MA) representations of economic models, starting from the work by Hansen and Sargent [1980]. Nonfundamentalness typically arises when agents' information space is larger than the...

Recent studies illustrate that under some conditions dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models can be expressed as structural vector autoregressive models of infinite order. Based on this mapping and the theoretical results about vector autoregressive models of infinite order this paper...

During the last decades Norwegian exporters have − despite various forms of exchange rate targeting − faced a rather volatile exchange rate which may have influenced their behaviour. Recently, the shift to inflation targeting and a freely floating exchange rate has brought about an even more...

We study the relationship between VARMA and factor representations of a vector stochastic process. We observe that, in general, vector time series and factors cannot both follow finite-order VAR models. Instead, a VAR factor dynamics induces a VARMA process, while a VAR process entails VARMA...

An explication of the key ideas behind the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach. The CVAR approach is related to Haavelmo's famous quot;Probability Approach in Econometricsquot; (1944). It insists on careful stochastic specification as a necessary groundwork for econometric inference and...

It is now an accepted fact that the majority of financial markets worldwide are neither normal nor constant, and South Africa is no exception. One idea that can be used to understand such markets and has been gaining popularity recently is that of regimes and regime-switching models. In this...