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Large vector autoregressions with asymmetric priors
Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2015 - This draft: November 2015
We propose a new algorithm which allows easy estimation of Vector Autoregressions (VARs) featuring asymmetric priors and time varying volatilities, even when the cross sectional dimension of the system N is particularly large. The algorithm is based on a simple triangularisation which allows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389735
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Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors : a panel VAR approach
Dées, Stéphane; Güntner, Jochen - 2014
This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different … can disentangle the role of unit labour costs and profit margins as the factors affecting price pressures on the supply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411883
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Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions
Cimadomo, Jacopo; Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; … - 2020
Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists. Nowcasting entails some key challenges, which also characterise modern Big Data analytics, often referred to as the three "Vs": the large number of time series continuously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259379
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Forecasting inflation in Argentina
Garegnani, María Lorena; Gómez Aguirre, Mauricio - 2018
During the year 2016, the Central Bank of Argentina has begun to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing the authorities of good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables turns out to be crucial to make the pertinent corrections to reach the desired policy goals. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846246
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Estimating and forecasting the impact of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria using threshold analysis
Okoroafor, David O. K.; Adeniji, Sesan O.; Olasehinde, … - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 9 (2018) 1, pp. 1-22
forecasting of inflation in Nigeria for the period of 1961 { 2016. The study employed Granger causality test, Au- toregressive … economic growth granger cause inflation during the period of study. Using broad money supply to GDP as control variable, an … inflation threshold of 14% -15% both in the short run and long run was established for Nigeria. As for the forecasting of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011922677
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Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle
Reif, Magnus - 2019
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
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Credit shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets
Houssa, Romain; Mohimont, Jolan; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2013
In this paper, we examine the role of global and domestic credit supply shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations for Emerging Markets. For this purpose, we impose a set of zero and sign restrictions within a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive model. Quarterly data from South Africa and G-7...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009754529
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The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country
Houssa, Romain - 2015
We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025500
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Nowcasting real GDP growth : comparison between old and new EU countries
Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, Karen - 2020
We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of …, although that variability in their GDP growth data is larger than that of the old EU economies, the economic significance of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012172202
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Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR
Gupta, Rangan; Olson, Eric; Wohar, Mark E. - In: Journal of forecasting 36 (2017) 6, pp. 640-650
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011861401