The Czech Republic has undergone a profound political, economical and social transformation in the past few decades. The changes that have occurred in society showed strongly in the change in the demographic behaviour of society and the change in the general population climate. The transition to...

We propose a method to explore the causal transmission of an intervention through two endogenous variables of interest. We refer to the intervention as a catalyst variable. The method is based on the reduced-form system formed from the conditional distribution of the two endogenous variables...

There is no consensus over the importance of "global forces" on inflation. This study explores the role of structural breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which "global forces" are relevant. Three conclusions stand out....

We estimate international spillover effects of US Quantitative Easing (QE) on emerging market economies (EMEs). Using a Bayesian VAR on monthly US macroeconomic and financial data, we first identify the US QE shock. The identified US QE shock is then used in a monthly Bayesian panel VAR for EMEs...

This paper proposes a method to interpret factors which are otherwise difficult to assign economic meaning to by utilizing a threshold factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. We observe the frequency of the factor loadings being induced to zero when they fall below the estimated...

A major challenge for proxy vector autoregressive analysis is the construction of a suitable instrument variable for identifying a shock of interest. We propose a simple proxy that can be constructed whenever the dating and sign of particular shocks are known. It is shown that the proxy can lead...