This study uses a Bayesian VAR to demonstrate that the recent house price boom in Germany can be explained by falling interest rates and that higher interest rates are likely suciffient to stop the increase of German house prices. The latter suggests a potential drawback of the current monetary...

In this paper we consider modeling and forecasting of large realized covariance matrices by penalized vector autoregressive models. We propose using Lasso-type estimators to reduce the dimensionality to a manageable one and provide strong theoretical performance guarantees on the forecast...