The paper develops a simple model to explain Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations. The model allows for a time-varying country risk premium and is used to motivate a Structural Vector Auto-Regression (SVAR) approach to study the joint dynamics of the Covered Interest Differential (CID) and...

We propose and implement an index of macroeconomic vulnerability to foreign shocks based on a structural time-varying bayesianVARwith a block-exogeneity hypothesis for a given pair of a large economy and a small open economy. The index is based on the sum of the responses of the small open...

Increasing amounts of capital flows to developing countries and emerging markets tend to stimulate economic activity in these countries on one hand, and lead to serious macroeconomic fluctuations on the other hand. Foreign investors' activities in an emerging market, specifically in a stock...

We explore empirically the transmission of U.S. financial and macroeconomic uncertainty to emerging market economies (EMEs). We start by assuming that there are crucial differences between volatility and uncertainty, and between the latter and its shocks. With the help of Bayesian vector...

This paper empirically investigates the transmission of systemic risk across the Euro Area by employing a Global VAR model. We find that a union aggregate systemic risk shock results in a sharp decline in output, with two thirds of the response to be attributed to cross-country spillovers. The...

In this paper, we explored the J-curve effect based on Nigerian data by adopting the vector error correction methodology. The results of the study indicated a cyclical feedback between the trade balance and the real exchange rate depreciation of the Naira. However, the analysis finds no...

Adopting a MS-VAR model (Krolzig, 1997) and a recently developed regime-dependent impulse response analysis technique (Ehrmann, et al., 2003), this paper investigates the dynamic relationships among the stock markets of the US, Australia and New Zealand. Our results reveal the existence of two...

The interdependence of the Nordic and Baltic stock markets is explored in light of increased merger activity of stock exchanges over the sample period, 1996-2006. The results show surprisingly little interdependence between the Nordic and Baltic stock indices. In the short run, the response of...

The period of the global financial crisis can be characterized by the spillover of negative innovations among stock markets worldwide. Stock markets in Central Europe were not excluded as they are not isolated from global stock markets. Recently published scientific studies dealing with this...

This working paper evaluates the economic sources of the stock market responses of 40 countries to surprises in the fed funds rate (FFR), the Fed's forward guidance (FG) and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP). We decompose stock market returns into different components reflecting investors'...